Zaman Kwamitin Siyasar Kuɗi na Najeriya (MPC): Masana Suna Tsammanin Tsanaki Saboda Tashin Farashin Kayayyaki
Yayin da Kwamitin Siyasar Kuɗi (MPC) na Babban Bankin Najeriya ke shirin yin taron sa na 300 a ranakun 19-20 ga Mayu, 2025, masana harkar kuɗi suna tsammanin za a yi wani mataki mai hankali amma mai ƙarfi.
Ana Tsammanin Za a Tsayar da Farashin Lamuni (MPR)
Masu lura da kasuwa suna tsammanin za a tsayar da farashin lamuni (MPR) a 27.5%, ko da yake ana iya yin ƙarin ƙarin maki 25 saboda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki duk da raguwar da aka samu kwanan nan.
A watan Fabrairun 2025, kwamitin ya tsayar da farashin lamuni ba tare da canzawa ba:
- Matsakaicin ruwa (Liquidity ratio) a 30%
- Matsakaicin ajiyar kuɗi (CRR) na bankunan kasuwanci a 50%
- Matsakaicin ajiyar kuɗi (CRR) na bankunan kasuwanci na kasuwanci a 16%
Hawan Farashin Kayayyaki Yana Nuna Alamomi Daban-daban
Bayanan kwanan nan sun nuna cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana da rikitarwa:
- A watan Afrilun 2025, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ragu zuwa 23.71% daga 24.23% a watan Maris
- Hawan farashin abinci ya ragu zuwa 21.26% daga 21.79%
- Indeksin hauhawar farashin wata ya karu daga 117.34 zuwa 119.52, wanda ke nuna ci gaba da matsin farashi
Ra’ayoyin Masana Sun Bambanta Game da Hanyar Siyasa
Ra’ayoyin Kyakkyawan Fata Suna Goyon Bayan Tsayar da Farashin Lamuni
Olaitan S. Sunday, Manajan Darakta na Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, ya ga cewa yanayin yana inganta: “Wannan raguwar yana nuna yiwuwar raguwar farashin abubuwan da ake buƙata a gida. Tsayar da MPR a 27.5% zai tallafa wa Naira kuma zai ƙarfafa amincewar masu saka hannun jari.”
Damilare Asimiyu na Afrinvest ya lura da raguwar farashi: “Daidaiton farashin canji da rage farashin man fetur na Dangote Refinery zai rage farashin kasuwanci da ɗan ƙaramin inganta ikon siye.”
Damuwa Game da Tasirin Siyasa
Masu sharhi a shirin tattaunawar tattalin arziki na Nairametrics TV sun nuna damuwa game da amfani da CRR: “Ana amfani da CRR ba daidai ba don sarrafa kuɗi maimakon kare masu ajiya, wanda ke rage lamuni ga kamfanoni masu zaman kansu.”
David Adonri, Manajan Darakta na Highcap Securities, ya yi gargaɗi: “Matsin buƙata ya kasance mai ƙarfi fiye da wadatar kayayyaki, wanda ke buƙatar ci gaba da tsauraran matakai.”
Olabode Odunniga na Redwood Asset Management ya faɗi: “Rashin tabbas na duniya, ciki har da yuwuwar ƙarin haraji na Trump, suna da haɗari. Ba za a iya rage farashin lamuni ba kafin rabin na biyu na 2025.”
Hasar Nairametrics
Bincikenmu ya nuna cewa MPC zai yiwu:
- Tsayar da MPR a 27.5% don ƙarfafa kwanciyar hankali
- Kasancewa a shirye don yin gyare-gyare idan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta ƙara
- Yiwuwar yin ƙarin maki 25 idan ya cancanta
Masu harkar kasuwa ya kamata su sa ido kan shawarwarin da za a bayar game da yiwuwar canjin siyasa a rabin na biyu na 2025.
Cikakken daraja ga mai wallafa asali: Nairametrics